コラム今後のコロナについて

大阪、東京の第4波がピークアウト 日本の感染対策のゴールは?(その2)

スポンサーリンク
コラム

大阪、東京の第4波がピークアウト 日本の感染対策のゴールは?(その2)

この春、関西や首都圏で猛威を振るった新型コロナウイルスの第4波がようやくピークアウトしつつあります。とはいえ、世界からの新たな変異株が次々と日本でも確認されており、またいつ第5波が発生するかわかりません。今回は感染者数の増減から見た、日本の新型コロナ対策のゴールについて考えてみたいと思います。

関西の第4波収束時期を予測

大阪と東京の第4波の下がり方については、以前こちらの記事で紹介しました。

それから約1週間が経過しましたが、大阪では7日平均(1週間前比較)が70%前後で推移しています。大阪では前回の緊急事態宣言解除直後だった3月2日時点の新規感染者数(7日平均)が68.71人でしたが、このまま順調に減少すれば、約2〜3週間後にこの数字にたどり着く可能性があります。


「【大阪府】陽性者数(単日/7日平均)」データを見る(※クリックすると開きます)

日付 陽性人数 7日平均 7日平均(一週間前比較)
2021/6/9 153 164.14 75.39%
2021/6/8 190 172.71 73.63%
2021/6/7 72 174.29 69.00%
2021/6/6 145 178.00 66.07%
2021/6/5 174 185.43 66.12%
2021/6/4 189 191.43 62.24%
2021/6/3 226 205.86 63.26%
2021/6/2 213 217.71 61.70%
2021/6/1 201 234.57 62.77%
2021/5/31 98 252.57 63.19%
2021/5/30 197 269.43 63.63%
2021/5/29 216 280.43 59.31%
2021/5/28 290 307.57 58.36%
2021/5/27 309 325.43 59.17%
2021/5/26 331 352.86 60.10%
2021/5/25 327 373.71 58.34%
2021/5/24 216 399.71 56.54%
2021/5/23 274 423.43 56.62%
2021/5/22 406 472.86 60.30%
2021/5/21 415 527.00 64.44%
2021/5/20 501 550.00 62.56%
2021/5/19 477 587.14 66.94%
2021/5/18 509 640.57 75.27%
2021/5/17 382 707.00 84.35%
2021/5/16 620 747.86 86.59%
2021/5/15 785 784.14 88.12%
2021/5/14 576 817.86 88.49%
2021/5/13 761 879.14 94.56%
2021/5/12 851 877.14 88.57%
2021/5/11 974 851.00 79.17%
2021/5/10 668 838.14 74.54%
2021/5/9 874 863.71 76.07%
2021/5/8 1021 889.86 78.44%
2021/5/7 1005 924.29 83.20%
2021/5/6 747 929.71 82.43%
2021/5/5 668 990.29 87.85%
2021/5/4 884 1074.86 95.57%
2021/5/3 847 1124.43 100.97%
2021/5/2 1057 1135.43 104.72%
2021/5/1 1262 1134.43 102.33%
2021/4/30 1043 1110.86 99.39%
2021/4/29 1171 1127.86 100.30%
2021/4/28 1260 1127.29 99.73%
2021/4/27 1231 1124.71 100.94%
2021/4/26 924 1113.57 100.63%
2021/4/25 1050 1084.29 99.48%
2021/4/24 1097 1108.57 108.23%
2021/4/23 1162 1117.71 112.95%
2021/4/22 1167 1124.43 119.24%
2021/4/21 1242 1130.29 125.63%
2021/4/20 1153 1114.29 129.01%
2021/4/19 719 1106.57 136.71%
2021/4/18 1220 1090.00 141.19%
2021/4/17 1161 1024.29 136.91%
2021/4/16 1209 989.57 138.96%
2021/4/15 1208 943.00 140.03%
2021/4/14 1130 899.71 142.33%
2021/4/13 1099 863.71 145.83%
2021/4/12 603 809.43 146.83%
2021/4/11 760 772.00 144.84%
2021/4/10 918 748.14 151.31%
2021/4/9 883 712.14 156.71%
2021/4/8 905 673.43 164.31%
2021/4/7 878 632.14 175.66%
2021/4/6 719 592.29 190.01%
2021/4/5 341 551.29 199.64%
2021/4/4 593 533.00 207.39%
2021/4/3 666 494.43 219.61%
2021/4/2 612 454.43 236.86%
2021/4/1 616 409.86 238.88%
2021/3/31 599 359.86 234.11%
2021/3/30 432 311.71 227.06%
2021/3/29 213 276.14 223.73%
2021/3/28 323 257.00 211.15%
2021/3/27 386 225.14 186.73%
2021/3/26 300 191.86 165.60%
2021/3/25 266 171.57 157.20%
2021/3/24 262 153.71 151.34%
2021/3/23 183 137.29 148.30%
2021/3/22 79 123.43 129.92%
2021/3/21 100 121.71 133.96%
2021/3/20 153 120.57 136.13%
2021/3/19 158 115.86 139.35%
2021/3/18 141 109.14 140.18%
2021/3/17 147 101.57 132.16%
2021/3/16 86 92.57 117.39%
2021/3/15 67 95.00 125.47%
2021/3/14 92 90.86 116.06%
2021/3/13 120 88.57 117.87%
2021/3/12 111 83.14 113.45%
2021/3/11 88 77.86 105.62%
2021/3/10 84 76.86 104.06%
2021/3/9 103 78.86 114.76%
2021/3/8 38 75.71 106.00%
2021/3/7 76 78.29 108.30%
2021/3/6 82 75.14 102.73%
2021/3/5 74 73.29 95.53%
2021/3/4 81 73.71 93.65%
2021/3/3 98 73.86 92.65%
2021/3/2 81 68.71 76.47%
2021/3/1 56 71.43 79.74%
2021/2/28 54 72.29 79.81%
2021/2/27 69 73.14 76.19%
2021/2/26 77 76.71 74.58%
2021/2/25 82 78.71 76.74%
2021/2/24 62 79.71 72.47%
2021/2/23 100 89.86 82.33%
2021/2/22 62 89.57 76.37%
2021/2/21 60 90.57 72.79%
2021/2/20 94 96.00 75.51%
2021/2/19 91 102.86 76.92%
2021/2/18 89 102.57 67.99%
2021/2/17 133 110.00 68.63%
2021/2/16 98 109.14 61.66%
2021/2/15 69 117.29 63.40%
2021/2/14 98 124.43 64.33%
2021/2/13 142 127.14 61.34%
2021/2/12 89 133.71 58.46%
2021/2/11 141 150.86 60.79%
2021/2/10 127 160.29 58.23%
2021/2/9 155 177.00 60.74%
2021/2/8 119 185.00 59.62%
2021/2/7 117 193.43 59.73%
2021/2/6 188 207.29 58.65%
2021/2/5 209 228.71 60.17%
2021/2/4 207 248.14 62.80%
2021/2/3 244 275.29 67.14%
2021/2/2 211 291.43 67.55%
2021/2/1 178 310.29 67.83%
2021/1/31 214 323.86 67.47%
2021/1/30 338 353.43 72.70%
2021/1/29 345 380.14 75.88%
2021/1/28 397 395.14 76.30%
2021/1/27 357 410.00 77.23%
2021/1/26 343 431.43 80.64%
2021/1/25 273 457.43 89.09%
2021/1/24 421 480.00 92.26%
2021/1/23 525 486.14 91.73%
2021/1/22 450 501.00 94.07%
2021/1/21 501 517.86 95.04%
2021/1/20 507 530.86 97.05%
2021/1/19 525 535.00 97.20%
2021/1/18 431 513.43 92.80%
2021/1/17 464 520.29 98.97%
2021/1/16 629 530.00 109.12%
2021/1/15 568 532.57 123.81%
2021/1/14 592 544.86 145.63%
2021/1/13 536 547.00 164.69%
2021/1/12 374 550.43 185.96%
2021/1/11 479 553.29 195.61%
2021/1/10 532 525.71 199.57%
2021/1/9 647 485.71 186.30%
2021/1/8 654 430.14 161.36%
2021/1/7 607 374.14 137.99%
2021/1/6 560 332.14 124.07%
2021/1/5 394 296.00 110.27%
2021/1/4 286 282.86 106.45%
2021/1/3 252 263.43 97.57%
2021/1/2 258 260.71 95.65%
2021/1/1 262 266.57 97.19%
2020/12/31 313 271.14 98.09%
2020/12/30 307 267.71 93.84%
2020/12/29 302 268.43 90.29%
2020/12/28 150 265.71 88.40%
2020/12/27 233 270.00 89.62%
2020/12/26 299 272.57 88.09%
2020/12/25 294 274.29 84.06%
2020/12/24 289 276.43 82.98%
2020/12/23 312 285.29 83.24%
2020/12/22 283 297.29 85.64%
2020/12/21 180 300.57 88.29%
2020/12/20 251 301.29 86.61%
2020/12/19 311 309.43 88.44%
2020/12/18 309 326.29 94.26%
2020/12/17 351 333.14 94.80%
2020/12/16 396 342.71 98.68%
2020/12/15 306 347.14 99.96%
2020/12/14 185 340.43 95.43%
2020/12/13 308 347.86 96.59%
2020/12/12 429 349.86 94.92%
2020/12/11 357 346.14 91.82%
2020/12/10 418 351.43 93.61%
2020/12/9 427 347.29 94.78%
2020/12/8 259 347.29 98.94%
2020/12/7 237 356.71 106.66%
2020/12/6 322 360.14 106.78%
2020/12/5 403 368.57 104.67%
2020/12/4 394 377.00 109.09%
2020/12/3 389 375.43 109.23%
2020/12/2 427 366.43 106.04%
2020/12/1 325 351.00 103.54%
2020/11/30 261 334.43 96.14%
2020/11/29 381 337.29 106.02%
2020/11/28 462 352.14 122.76%
2020/11/27 383 345.57 128.88%
2020/11/26 326 343.71 135.93%
2020/11/25 319 345.57 145.55%
2020/11/24 209 339.00 144.26%
2020/11/23 281 347.86 152.19%
2020/11/22 485 318.14 138.75%
2020/11/21 416 286.86 135.77%
2020/11/20 370 268.14 135.52%
2020/11/19 339 252.86 137.10%
2020/11/18 273 237.43 140.25%
2020/11/17 271 235.00 162.23%
2020/11/16 73 228.57 169.49%
2020/11/15 266 229.29 170.74%
2020/11/14 285 211.29 160.24%
2020/11/13 263 197.86 158.29%
2020/11/12 231 184.43 153.14%
2020/11/11 256 169.29 140.57%
2020/11/10 226 144.86 115.89%
2020/11/9 78 134.86 109.64%
2020/11/8 140 134.29 113.25%
2020/11/7 191 131.86 118.79%
2020/11/6 169 125.00 119.86%
2020/11/5 125 120.43 121.65%
2020/11/4 85 120.43 130.50%
2020/11/3 156 125.00 143.21%
2020/11/2 74 123.00 161.24%
2020/11/1 123 118.57 156.02%
2020/10/31 143 111.00 151.76%
2020/10/30 137 104.29 156.65%
2020/10/29 125 99.00 165.39%
2020/10/28 117 92.29 164.80%
2020/10/27 142 87.29 164.69%
2020/10/26 43 76.29 142.40%
2020/10/25 70 76.00 147.78%
2020/10/24 96 73.14 144.23%
2020/10/23 100 66.57 130.53%
2020/10/22 78 59.86 115.75%
2020/10/21 82 56.00 108.89%
2020/10/20 65 53.00 106.00%
2020/10/19 41 53.57 110.29%
2020/10/18 50 51.43 104.35%
2020/10/17 50 50.71 104.72%
2020/10/16 53 51.00 105.62%
2020/10/15 51 51.71 109.70%
2020/10/14 61 51.43 100.84%
2020/10/13 69 50.00 95.89%
2020/10/12 26 48.57 95.24%
2020/10/11 45 49.29 95.30%
2020/10/10 52 48.43 91.37%
2020/10/9 58 48.29 87.56%
2020/10/8 49 47.14 82.91%
2020/10/7 51 51.00 92.01%
2020/10/6 59 52.14 99.18%
2020/10/5 31 51.00 92.97%
2020/10/4 39 51.71 93.54%
2020/10/3 51 53.00 93.22%
2020/10/2 50 55.14 93.46%
2020/10/1 76 56.86 96.84%
2020/9/30 59 55.43 96.52%
2020/9/29 51 52.57 83.45%
2020/9/28 36 54.86 82.94%
2020/9/27 48 55.29 84.87%
2020/9/26 66 56.86 83.97%
2020/9/25 62 59.00 86.76%
2020/9/24 66 58.71 76.68%
2020/9/23 39 57.43 70.40%
2020/9/22 67 63.00 79.32%
2020/9/21 39 66.14 84.49%
2020/9/20 59 65.14 81.28%
2020/9/19 81 67.71 86.03%
2020/9/18 60 68.00 87.50%
2020/9/17 57 76.57 107.63%
2020/9/16 78 81.57 118.96%
2020/9/15 89 79.43 108.38%
2020/9/14 32 78.29 100.37%
2020/9/13 77 80.14 101.26%
2020/9/12 83 78.71 100.36%
2020/9/11 120 77.71 96.63%
2020/9/10 92 71.14 83.70%
2020/9/9 63 68.57 78.05%
2020/9/8 81 73.29 80.41%
2020/9/7 45 78.00 84.91%
2020/9/6 67 79.14 85.23%
2020/9/5 76 78.43 77.43%
2020/9/4 74 80.43 74.77%
2020/9/3 74 85.00 73.19%
2020/9/2 96 87.86 72.27%
2020/9/1 114 91.14 69.42%
2020/8/31 53 91.86 65.28%
2020/8/30 62 92.86 65.26%
2020/8/29 90 101.29 69.37%
2020/8/28 106 107.57 72.47%
2020/8/27 94 116.14 76.34%
2020/8/26 119 121.57 76.67%
2020/8/25 119 131.29 83.02%
2020/8/24 60 140.71 96.29%
2020/8/23 121 142.29 92.65%
2020/8/22 134 146.00 91.01%
2020/8/21 166 148.43 90.35%
2020/8/20 132 152.14 87.80%
2020/8/19 187 158.57 88.03%
2020/8/18 185 158.14 86.96%
2020/8/17 71 146.14 74.95%
2020/8/16 147 153.57 81.25%
2020/8/15 151 160.43 84.95%
2020/8/14 192 164.29 85.88%
2020/8/13 177 173.29 93.31%
2020/8/12 184 180.14 99.68%
2020/8/11 101 181.86 98.68%
2020/8/10 123 195.00 109.03%
2020/8/9 195 189.00 105.25%
2020/8/8 178 188.86 109.80%
2020/8/7 255 191.29 117.35%
2020/8/6 225 185.71 121.04%
2020/8/5 196 180.71 128.04%
2020/8/4 193 184.29 145.27%
2020/8/3 81 178.86 155.53%
2020/8/2 194 179.57 163.67%
2020/8/1 195 172.00 168.16%
2020/7/31 216 163.00 170.30%
2020/7/30 190 153.43 187.11%
2020/7/29 221 141.14 184.33%
2020/7/28 155 126.86 186.55%
2020/7/27 86 115.00 189.86%
2020/7/26 141 109.71 195.42%
2020/7/25 132 102.29 213.10%
2020/7/24 149 95.71 241.01%
2020/7/23 104 82.00 232.39%
2020/7/22 121 76.57 254.03%
2020/7/21 72 68.00 297.50%
2020/7/20 49 60.57 278.95%
2020/7/19 89 56.14 276.76%
2020/7/18 86 48.00 289.66%
2020/7/17 53 39.71 264.76%
2020/7/16 66 35.29 262.77%
2020/7/15 61 30.14 293.06%
2020/7/14 20 22.86 222.22%
2020/7/13 18 21.71 233.85%
2020/7/12 32 20.29 221.88%
2020/7/11 28 16.57 184.13%
2020/7/10 22 15.00 218.75%
2020/7/9 30 13.43 241.03%
2020/7/8 10 10.29 225.00%
2020/7/7 12 10.29 300.00%
2020/7/6 8 9.29 342.11%
2020/7/5 6 9.14 533.33%
2020/7/4 17 9.00 630.00%
2020/7/3 11 6.86 342.86%
2020/7/2 8 5.57 278.57%
2020/7/1 10 4.57 188.24%
2020/6/30 5 3.43 126.32%
2020/6/29 7 2.71 86.36%
2020/6/28 5 1.71 54.55%
2020/6/27 2 1.43 50.00%
2020/6/26 2 2.00 100.00%
2020/6/25 1 2.00 116.67%
2020/6/24 2 2.43 188.89%
2020/6/23 0 2.71 380.00%
2020/6/22 0 3.14 1100.00%
2020/6/21 3 3.14 1100.00%
2020/6/20 6 2.86 1000.00%
2020/6/19 2 2.00 466.67%
2020/6/18 4 1.71 400.00%
2020/6/17 4 1.29 450.00%
2020/6/16 3 0.71 250.00%
2020/6/15 0 0.29 100.00%
2020/6/14 1 0.29 100.00%
2020/6/13 0 0.29 100.00%
2020/6/12 0 0.43 300.00%
2020/6/11 1 0.43 300.00%
2020/6/10 0 0.29 200.00%
2020/6/9 0 0.29 100.00%
2020/6/8 0 0.29 100.00%
2020/6/7 1 0.29 100.00%
2020/6/6 1 0.29 200.00%
2020/6/5 0 0.14 100.00%
2020/6/4 0 0.14 50.00%
2020/6/3 0 0.14 20.00%
2020/6/2 0 0.29 28.57%
2020/6/1 0 0.29 20.00%
2020/5/31 1 0.29 18.18%
2020/5/30 0 0.14 9.09%
2020/5/29 0 0.14 7.69%
2020/5/28 0 0.29 13.33%
2020/5/27 1 0.71 33.33%
2020/5/26 0 1.00 29.17%
2020/5/25 0 1.43 37.04%
2020/5/24 0 1.57 40.74%
2020/5/23 0 1.57 28.95%
2020/5/22 1 1.86 25.00%
2020/5/21 3 2.14 25.42%
2020/5/20 3 2.14 23.44%
2020/5/19 3 3.43 37.50%
2020/5/18 1 3.86 41.54%
2020/5/17 0 3.86 35.06%
2020/5/16 2 5.43 50.00%
2020/5/15 3 7.43 67.53%
2020/5/14 3 8.43 72.84%
2020/5/13 12 9.14 63.37%
2020/5/12 6 9.14 48.12%
2020/5/11 1 9.29 41.14%
2020/5/10 11 11.00 44.00%
2020/5/9 16 10.86 41.99%
2020/5/8 10 11.00 39.90%
2020/5/7 8 11.57 38.57%
2020/5/6 12 14.43 46.54%
2020/5/5 7 19.00 65.20%
2020/5/4 13 22.57 69.91%
2020/5/3 10 25.00 62.50%
2020/5/2 17 25.86 58.01%
2020/5/1 14 27.57 52.02%
2020/4/30 28 30.00 53.16%
2020/4/29 44 31.00 52.67%
2020/4/28 32 29.14 44.84%
2020/4/27 30 32.29 49.13%
2020/4/26 16 40.00 70.00%
2020/4/25 29 44.57 78.59%
2020/4/24 31 53.00 97.89%
2020/4/23 35 56.43 97.77%
2020/4/22 31 58.86 92.79%
2020/4/21 54 65.00 110.17%
2020/4/20 84 65.71 113.02%
2020/4/19 48 57.14 99.26%
2020/4/18 88 56.71 104.75%
2020/4/17 55 54.14 108.29%
2020/4/16 52 57.71 132.46%
2020/4/15 74 63.43 180.49%
2020/4/14 59 59.00 174.26%
2020/4/13 24 58.14 191.98%
2020/4/12 45 57.57 201.50%
2020/4/11 70 54.14 193.37%
2020/4/10 80 50.00 205.88%
2020/4/9 92 43.57 196.77%
2020/4/8 43 35.14 190.70%
2020/4/7 53 33.86 232.35%
2020/4/6 20 30.29 258.54%
2020/4/5 21 28.57 259.74%
2020/4/4 41 28.00 296.97%
2020/4/3 35 24.29 320.75%
2020/4/2 33 22.14 418.92%
2020/4/1 34 18.43 403.13%
2020/3/31 28 14.57 340.00%
2020/3/30 8 11.71 315.38%
2020/3/29 17 11.00 308.00%
2020/3/28 15 9.43 286.96%
2020/3/27 20 7.57 170.97%
2020/3/26 7 5.29 123.33%
2020/3/25 7 4.57 86.49%
2020/3/24 8 4.29 76.92%
2020/3/23 3 3.71 49.06%
2020/3/22 6 3.57 49.02%
2020/3/21 2 3.29 37.70%
2020/3/20 4 4.43 50.82%
2020/3/19 2 4.29 42.25%
2020/3/18 5 5.29 58.73%
2020/3/17 4 5.57 60.00%
2020/3/16 2 7.57 108.16%
2020/3/15 4 7.29 100.00%
2020/3/14 10 8.71 164.86%
2020/3/13 3 8.71 225.93%
2020/3/12 9 10.14 443.75%
2020/3/11 7 9.00 393.75%
2020/3/10 18 9.29 928.57%
2020/3/9 0 7.00 980.00%
2020/3/8 14 7.29 1700.00%
2020/3/7 10 5.29 1233.33%
2020/3/6 13 3.86 900.00%
2020/3/5 1 2.29 1600.00%
2020/3/4 9 2.29 #DIV/0!
2020/3/3 2 1.00 #DIV/0!
2020/3/2 2 0.71 #DIV/0!
2020/3/1 0 0.43 #DIV/0!
2020/2/29 0 0.43 #DIV/0!
2020/2/28 2 0.43 #DIV/0!
2020/2/27 1 0.14 #DIV/0!
2020/2/26 0 0.00 #DIV/0!
2020/2/25 0 0.00 #DIV/0!
2020/2/24 0 0.00 #DIV/0!
2020/2/23 0 0.00 #DIV/0!
2020/2/22 0 0.00 #DIV/0!
2020/2/21 0 0.00 #DIV/0!
2020/2/20 0 0.00 #DIV/0!
2020/2/19 0 0.00 #DIV/0!
2020/2/18 0 0.00 #DIV/0!
2020/2/17 0 0.00 #DIV/0!
2020/2/16 0 0.00 #DIV/0!
2020/2/15 0 0.00 #DIV/0!
2020/2/14 0 0.00 #DIV/0!
2020/2/13 0 0.00 #DIV/0!
2020/2/12 0 0.00 #DIV/0!
2020/2/11 0 0.00 0.00%
2020/2/10 0 0.00 0.00%
2020/2/9 0 0.00 0.00%
2020/2/8 0 0.00 0.00%
2020/2/7 0 0.00 0.00%
2020/2/6 0 0.00
2020/2/5 0 0.00
2020/2/4 0 0.14
2020/2/3 0 0.14
2020/2/2 0 0.14
2020/2/1 0 0.14
2020/1/31 0 0.14
2020/1/30 0
2020/1/29 1
2020/1/28 0
2020/1/27 0
2020/1/26 0


東京の第4波収束時期を予測

東京の場合、1日あたりの新規感染者数(7日平均)が昨年11月7日を最後に200人以下になることはなく、ずっと200人以上で推移しています(6月7日は422.86人)。第5波を食い止めるためにもこの数字が200人を切ることを目指す必要があります。東京では7日平均(1週間前比較)が現在も70%台後半で推移しています。こちらもこのまま推移していけば、3週間後には200人を切ると考えられます。


「【東京都】陽性者数(単日/7日平均)」全データを見る(※クリックすると開きます)

日付 陽性者数(単日) 7日平均 7日平均(一週間前比較)
2021/6/9 440 401.57 84.49%
2021/6/8 369 408.29 81.59%
2021/6/7 235 422.86 78.74%
2021/6/6 351 426.43 77.94%
2021/6/5 436 440.29 78.82%
2021/6/4 472 455.00 79.68%
2021/6/3 508 475.29 81.95%
2021/6/2 487 500.43 85.54%
2021/6/1 471 537.00 88.36%
2021/5/31 260 547.14 89.55%
2021/5/30 448 558.57 87.53%
2021/5/29 539 571.00 87.92%
2021/5/28 614 580.00 89.17%
2021/5/27 684 585.00 86.70%
2021/5/26 743 607.71 86.32%
2021/5/25 542 611.00 83.95%
2021/5/24 340 638.14 84.31%
2021/5/23 535 649.43 82.79%
2021/5/22 602 650.43 80.66%
2021/5/21 649 674.71 76.98%
2021/5/20 843 704.00 76.00%
2021/5/19 766 727.86 77.94%
2021/5/18 732 756.86 86.60%
2021/5/17 419 784.43 95.16%
2021/5/16 542 806.43 103.50%
2021/5/15 772 876.43 109.77%
2021/5/14 854 926.29 119.28%
2021/5/13 1010 933.86 121.85%
2021/5/12 969 874.00 118.66%
2021/5/11 925 824.29 103.18%
2021/5/10 573 779.14 92.50%
2021/5/9 1032 798.43 91.40%
2021/5/8 1121 776.57 93.21%
2021/5/7 907 766.43 96.01%
2021/5/6 591 736.57 95.23%
2021/5/5 621 798.86 102.14%
2021/5/4 609 842.29 111.06%
2021/5/3 708 873.57 116.99%
2021/5/2 879 833.14 114.13%
2021/5/1 1050 798.29 109.78%
2021/4/30 698 773.43 108.32%
2021/4/29 1027 782.14 112.17%
2021/4/28 925 758.43 110.86%
2021/4/27 828 746.71 112.24%
2021/4/26 425 730.00 116.00%
2021/4/25 635 727.14 121.08%
2021/4/24 876 714.00 121.75%
2021/4/23 759 697.29 122.55%
2021/4/22 861 684.14 126.23%
2021/4/21 843 665.29 127.10%
2021/4/20 711 629.29 126.58%
2021/4/19 405 600.57 122.07%
2021/4/18 543 586.43 123.16%
2021/4/17 759 569.00 121.58%
2021/4/16 667 542.00 118.19%
2021/4/15 729 523.43 118.73%
2021/4/14 591 497.14 116.43%
2021/4/13 510 492.00 117.99%
2021/4/12 306 476.14 119.98%
2021/4/11 421 468.00 119.43%
2021/4/10 570 458.57 117.67%
2021/4/9 537 440.86 114.89%
2021/4/8 545 427.00 111.95%
2021/4/7 555 417.00 112.01%
2021/4/6 399 396.86 110.02%
2021/4/5 249 391.86 108.38%
2021/4/4 355 389.71 108.95%
2021/4/3 446 383.71 109.32%
2021/4/2 440 381.43 111.25%
2021/4/1 475 372.29 112.72%
2021/3/31 414 360.71 112.77%
2021/3/30 364 361.57 116.74%
2021/3/29 234 357.71 116.09%
2021/3/28 313 351.00 115.90%
2021/3/27 430 342.86 113.85%
2021/3/26 376 330.29 110.57%
2021/3/25 394 319.86 107.70%
2021/3/24 420 309.71 104.23%
2021/3/23 337 308.14 103.11%
2021/3/22 187 302.86 104.79%
2021/3/21 256 301.14 104.72%
2021/3/20 342 298.71 107.01%
2021/3/19 303 297.00 106.51%
2021/3/18 323 297.14 108.62%
2021/3/17 409 298.86 109.41%
2021/3/16 300 289.00 109.00%
2021/3/15 175 287.57 109.88%
2021/3/14 239 279.14 110.15%
2021/3/13 330 278.86 109.72%
2021/3/12 304 273.57 102.35%
2021/3/11 335 273.14 99.84%
2021/3/10 340 265.14 98.51%
2021/3/9 290 261.71 94.19%
2021/3/8 116 253.43 96.31%
2021/3/7 237 254.14 94.38%
2021/3/6 293 267.29 96.34%
2021/3/5 301 273.57 101.59%
2021/3/4 279 269.14 100.48%
2021/3/3 316 277.86 99.34%
2021/3/2 232 263.14 89.29%
2021/3/1 121 269.29 84.61%
2021/2/28 329 277.43 84.32%
2021/2/27 337 269.29 78.84%
2021/2/26 270 267.86 75.30%
2021/2/25 340 279.71 77.33%
2021/2/24 213 294.71 82.98%
2021/2/23 275 318.29 90.02%
2021/2/22 178 329.00 88.99%
2021/2/21 272 341.57 90.23%
2021/2/20 327 355.71 93.61%
2021/2/19 353 361.71 93.16%
2021/2/18 445 355.14 83.20%
2021/2/17 378 353.57 75.97%
2021/2/16 350 369.71 72.74%
2021/2/15 266 378.57 70.80%
2021/2/14 371 380.00 68.43%
2021/2/13 369 388.29 67.88%
2021/2/12 307 426.86 70.99%
2021/2/11 434 465.43 75.07%
2021/2/10 491 508.29 76.78%
2021/2/9 412 534.71 75.39%
2021/2/8 276 555.29 73.83%
2021/2/7 429 572.00 69.82%
2021/2/6 639 601.29 70.61%
2021/2/5 577 620.00 68.75%
2021/2/4 734 662.00 69.98%
2021/2/3 676 709.29 71.59%
2021/2/2 556 752.14 71.58%
2021/2/1 393 819.29 74.82%
2021/1/31 634 851.57 75.53%
2021/1/30 770 901.86 74.36%
2021/1/29 871 946.00 72.78%
2021/1/28 1065 990.71 70.34%
2021/1/27 976 1050.71 68.62%
2021/1/26 1026 1095.00 71.06%
2021/1/25 619 1127.43 71.88%
2021/1/24 986 1212.86 78.96%
2021/1/23 1079 1299.86 84.35%
2021/1/22 1184 1408.43 92.12%
2021/1/21 1485 1531.29 95.75%
2021/1/20 1286 1540.86 92.90%
2021/1/19 1253 1568.57 87.30%
2021/1/18 1217 1536.00 84.41%
2021/1/17 1595 1541.00 82.80%
2021/1/16 1839 1528.86 84.39%
2021/1/15 2044 1599.29 93.31%
2021/1/14 1552 1658.57 110.63%
2021/1/13 1480 1796.86 142.48%
2021/1/12 1025 1819.71 166.27%
2021/1/11 1252 1861.14 186.59%
2021/1/10 1510 1811.57 194.02%
2021/1/9 2332 1713.86 195.97%
2021/1/8 2459 1499.14 174.78%
2021/1/7 2520 1261.14 144.04%
2021/1/6 1640 1094.43 123.05%
2021/1/5 1315 997.43 121.05%
2021/1/4 905 933.71 117.45%
2021/1/3 826 874.57 116.26%
2021/1/2 829 857.71 116.09%
2021/1/1 793 875.57 122.09%
2020/12/31 1353 889.43 129.65%
2020/12/30 961 824.00 126.05%
2020/12/29 869 795.00 123.58%
2020/12/28 491 752.29 118.98%
2020/12/27 708 738.86 119.92%
2020/12/26 954 717.14 118.93%
2020/12/25 890 686.00 115.82%
2020/12/24 895 653.71 113.52%
2020/12/23 758 643.29 113.63%
2020/12/22 570 632.29 118.28%
2020/12/21 397 616.14 118.65%
2020/12/20 556 603.00 119.51%
2020/12/19 736 592.29 117.52%
2020/12/18 664 575.86 119.44%
2020/12/17 822 566.14 118.72%
2020/12/16 681 534.57 116.90%
2020/12/15 457 519.29 116.06%
2020/12/14 305 504.57 115.46%
2020/12/13 481 504.00 114.73%
2020/12/12 621 482.14 109.36%
2020/12/11 596 476.86 105.07%
2020/12/10 601 457.29 101.49%
2020/12/9 574 447.43 95.93%
2020/12/8 354 437.00 95.15%
2020/12/7 301 439.29 98.68%
2020/12/6 328 440.86 105.18%
2020/12/5 584 453.86 108.17%
2020/12/4 459 450.57 108.46%
2020/12/3 532 466.43 113.13%
2020/12/2 501 459.29 113.28%
2020/12/1 370 445.14 107.93%
2020/11/30 312 419.14 98.75%
2020/11/29 419 419.57 95.33%
2020/11/28 561 415.43 98.71%
2020/11/27 570 412.29 102.67%
2020/11/26 482 405.43 108.16%
2020/11/25 402 412.43 116.60%
2020/11/24 188 424.43 127.13%
2020/11/23 315 440.14 142.18%
2020/11/22 390 420.86 136.26%
2020/11/21 539 401.57 131.48%
2020/11/20 522 374.86 126.64%
2020/11/19 531 353.71 122.94%
2020/11/18 486 333.86 124.18%
2020/11/17 298 309.57 123.19%
2020/11/16 180 308.86 138.15%
2020/11/15 255 305.43 144.36%
2020/11/14 352 296.00 146.74%
2020/11/13 374 287.71 150.41%
2020/11/12 392 268.86 149.37%
2020/11/11 316 251.29 144.06%
2020/11/10 293 223.57 133.53%
2020/11/9 156 211.57 121.29%
2020/11/8 189 201.71 120.68%
2020/11/7 294 191.29 113.00%
2020/11/6 242 180.00 105.62%
2020/11/5 269 174.43 103.56%
2020/11/4 122 167.43 100.86%
2020/11/3 209 174.43 108.34%
2020/11/2 87 167.14 106.27%
2020/11/1 116 169.29 109.52%
2020/10/31 215 170.43 112.76%
2020/10/30 203 168.43 110.60%
2020/10/29 220 166.00 105.64%
2020/10/28 171 161.00 102.73%
2020/10/27 158 157.29 92.06%
2020/10/26 102 154.57 88.11%
2020/10/25 124 151.14 84.30%
2020/10/24 201 152.29 84.94%
2020/10/23 186 157.14 86.68%
2020/10/22 185 156.71 85.57%
2020/10/21 145 170.86 91.86%
2020/10/20 139 175.43 97.00%
2020/10/19 78 179.29 102.12%
2020/10/18 132 179.29 101.29%
2020/10/17 235 181.29 103.51%
2020/10/16 183 183.14 108.00%
2020/10/15 284 186.00 113.81%
2020/10/14 177 180.86 111.35%
2020/10/13 166 175.57 109.44%
2020/10/12 78 177.00 105.27%
2020/10/11 146 175.14 101.16%
2020/10/10 248 169.57 96.90%
2020/10/9 203 163.43 90.65%
2020/10/8 248 162.43 85.75%
2020/10/7 140 160.43 84.75%
2020/10/6 176 168.14 91.67%
2020/10/5 65 173.14 105.48%
2020/10/4 107 175.00 119.40%
2020/10/3 205 180.29 120.77%
2020/10/2 196 189.43 124.74%
2020/10/1 234 189.29 130.93%
2020/9/30 194 183.43 123.82%
2020/9/29 211 164.14 113.20%
2020/9/28 78 146.57 91.69%
2020/9/27 144 149.29 85.52%
2020/9/26 269 151.86 88.22%
2020/9/25 195 144.57 85.11%
2020/9/24 193 148.14 86.63%
2020/9/23 59 145.00 87.20%
2020/9/22 88 159.86 88.18%
2020/9/21 97 174.57 97.37%
2020/9/20 162 172.14 97.65%
2020/9/19 218 169.86 96.67%
2020/9/18 220 171.00 99.75%
2020/9/17 171 166.29 100.78%
2020/9/16 163 181.29 114.95%
2020/9/15 191 179.29 120.79%
2020/9/14 80 176.29 119.69%
2020/9/13 146 175.71 119.30%
2020/9/12 226 171.43 113.74%
2020/9/11 187 165.00 106.26%
2020/9/10 276 157.71 95.75%
2020/9/9 149 148.43 83.59%
2020/9/8 170 147.29 80.42%
2020/9/7 76 147.29 74.87%
2020/9/6 116 150.71 75.95%
2020/9/5 181 155.29 78.54%
2020/9/4 136 164.71 79.63%
2020/9/3 211 177.57 85.31%
2020/9/2 141 183.14 86.10%
2020/9/1 170 196.71 87.26%
2020/8/31 100 198.43 90.90%
2020/8/30 148 197.71 89.12%
2020/8/29 247 206.86 89.44%
2020/8/28 226 208.14 87.40%
2020/8/27 250 212.71 82.91%
2020/8/26 236 225.43 81.89%
2020/8/25 182 218.29 85.17%
2020/8/24 95 221.86 84.86%
2020/8/23 212 231.29 89.40%
2020/8/22 256 238.14 90.25%
2020/8/21 258 256.57 93.64%
2020/8/20 339 275.29 98.22%
2020/8/19 186 256.29 88.20%
2020/8/18 207 261.43 83.64%
2020/8/17 161 258.71 81.25%
2020/8/16 260 263.86 78.60%
2020/8/15 385 274.00 79.55%
2020/8/14 389 280.29 82.72%
2020/8/13 206 290.57 84.22%
2020/8/12 222 312.57 90.56%
2020/8/11 188 318.43 91.99%
2020/8/10 197 335.71 97.51%
2020/8/9 331 344.43 101.86%
2020/8/8 429 338.86 105.89%
2020/8/7 461 345.00 110.43%
2020/8/6 360 345.14 120.20%
2020/8/5 263 346.14 134.02%
2020/8/4 309 344.29 133.37%
2020/8/3 258 338.14 131.87%
2020/8/2 292 320.00 126.84%
2020/8/1 472 312.43 121.30%
2020/7/31 462 287.14 114.73%
2020/7/30 367 258.29 103.49%
2020/7/29 250 258.14 101.52%
2020/7/28 266 256.43 105.59%
2020/7/27 131 252.29 108.54%
2020/7/26 239 257.57 117.61%
2020/7/25 295 250.29 118.14%
2020/7/24 260 249.57 116.39%
2020/7/23 366 254.29 125.62%
2020/7/22 238 242.86 124.36%
2020/7/21 237 232.43 124.67%
2020/7/20 168 219.00 126.17%
2020/7/19 188 211.86 125.89%
2020/7/18 290 214.43 129.17%
2020/7/17 293 202.43 132.80%
2020/7/16 286 195.29 137.80%
2020/7/15 165 186.43 149.48%
2020/7/14 143 173.57 160.71%
2020/7/13 118 168.29 157.49%
2020/7/12 206 166.00 166.95%
2020/7/11 206 152.43 163.65%
2020/7/10 243 141.71 165.06%
2020/7/9 224 124.71 165.65%
2020/7/8 75 108.00 165.43%
2020/7/7 106 106.86 187.94%
2020/7/6 102 99.43 180.31%
2020/7/5 111 93.14 179.61%
2020/7/4 131 85.86 179.94%
2020/7/3 124 75.29 171.10%
2020/7/2 107 65.29 157.59%
2020/7/1 67 56.86 146.86%
2020/6/30 54 55.14 146.21%
2020/6/29 58 51.86 161.33%
2020/6/28 60 47.71 151.13%
2020/6/27 57 44.00 128.33%
2020/6/26 54 41.43 114.62%
2020/6/25 48 38.71 113.87%
2020/6/24 55 37.71 115.79%
2020/6/23 31 32.14 107.66%
2020/6/22 29 31.57 104.74%
2020/6/21 34 34.29 122.45%
2020/6/20 39 36.14 157.14%
2020/6/19 35 34.00 185.94%
2020/6/18 41 32.57 175.38%
2020/6/17 16 29.86 167.20%
2020/6/16 27 30.14 161.07%
2020/6/15 48 28.00 156.80%
2020/6/14 47 23.00 109.52%
2020/6/13 24 18.29 87.07%
2020/6/12 25 18.57 94.20%
2020/6/11 22 17.86 99.21%
2020/6/10 18 18.71 103.15%
2020/6/9 12 17.86 109.65%
2020/6/8 13 21.00 130.09%
2020/6/7 14 21.00 165.17%
2020/6/6 26 19.71 164.29%
2020/6/5 20 18.00 135.48%
2020/6/4 28 18.14 156.79%
2020/6/3 12 16.29 180.95%
2020/6/2 34 16.14 191.53%
2020/6/1 13 12.71 167.92%
2020/5/31 5 12.00 175.00%
2020/5/30 14 13.29 186.00%
2020/5/29 21 11.57 197.56%
2020/5/28 15 9.00 118.87%
2020/5/27 11 8.43 100.00%
2020/5/26 10 7.57 67.95%
2020/5/25 8 6.86 57.83%
2020/5/24 14 7.14 47.62%
2020/5/23 2 5.86 37.27%
2020/5/22 3 7.57 41.73%
2020/5/21 11 8.43 39.60%
2020/5/20 5 11.14 43.58%
2020/5/19 5 11.86 48.26%
2020/5/18 10 15.00 52.76%
2020/5/17 5 15.71 48.03%
2020/5/16 14 18.14 42.19%
2020/5/15 9 21.29 40.05%
2020/5/14 30 25.57 36.53%
2020/5/13 10 24.57 27.92%
2020/5/12 27 28.43 30.52%
2020/5/11 15 32.71 34.59%
2020/5/10 22 43.00 41.92%
2020/5/9 36 53.14 55.36%
2020/5/8 39 70.00 74.13%
2020/5/7 23 88.00 98.40%
2020/5/6 37 93.14 103.33%
2020/5/5 57 94.57 93.77%
2020/5/4 87 102.57 91.82%
2020/5/3 93 96.00 84.85%
2020/5/2 154 94.43 77.58%
2020/5/1 165 89.43 71.22%
2020/4/30 59 90.14 66.70%
2020/4/29 47 100.86 71.89%
2020/4/28 113 111.71 78.28%
2020/4/27 41 113.14 78.96%
2020/4/26 82 121.71 82.00%
2020/4/25 119 125.57 84.68%
2020/4/24 170 135.14 85.77%
2020/4/23 134 140.29 88.07%
2020/4/22 123 142.71 90.16%
2020/4/21 123 143.29 87.98%
2020/4/20 101 148.43 88.88%
2020/4/19 109 148.29 94.62%
2020/4/18 186 157.57 101.94%
2020/4/17 206 159.29 106.29%
2020/4/16 151 158.29 114.34%
2020/4/15 127 162.86 132.25%
2020/4/14 159 167.00 150.45%
2020/4/13 100 156.71 159.45%
2020/4/12 174 154.57 159.35%
2020/4/11 198 149.86 173.10%
2020/4/10 199 138.43 180.45%
2020/4/9 183 123.14 178.47%
2020/4/8 156 111.00 180.28%
2020/4/7 87 98.29 181.53%
2020/4/6 85 97.00 192.35%
2020/4/5 141 86.57 206.83%
2020/4/4 118 76.71 180.81%
2020/4/3 92 69.00 211.84%
2020/4/2 98 61.57 252.05%
2020/4/1 67 54.14 266.90%
2020/3/31 78 50.43 342.72%
2020/3/30 12 41.86 412.68%
2020/3/29 72 42.43 456.92%
2020/3/28 64 32.57 465.31%
2020/3/27 40 24.43 348.98%
2020/3/26 46 20.29 273.08%
2020/3/25 41 14.71 239.53%
2020/3/24 18 10.14 186.84%
2020/3/23 16 9.29 185.71%
2020/3/22 3 7.00 188.46%
2020/3/21 7 7.00 188.46%
2020/3/20 11 7.43 226.09%
2020/3/19 7 6.14 226.32%
2020/3/18 9 5.43 165.22%
2020/3/17 12 5.00 120.69%
2020/3/16 0 3.71 96.30%
2020/3/15 3 3.71 104.00%
2020/3/14 10 3.29 92.00%
2020/3/13 2 2.71 70.37%
2020/3/12 2 3.29 104.55%
2020/3/11 6 4.14 181.25%
2020/3/10 3 3.86 300.00%
2020/3/9 0 3.57 312.50%
2020/3/8 0 3.57 357.14%
2020/3/7 6 3.86 270.00%
2020/3/6 6 3.14 275.00%
2020/3/5 8 2.29 200.00%
2020/3/4 4 1.29 81.82%
2020/3/3 1 1.14 80.00%
2020/3/2 0 1.00 70.00%
2020/3/1 2 1.43 76.92%
2020/2/29 1 1.14 80.00%
2020/2/28 0 1.14 53.33%
2020/2/27 1 1.57 50.00%
2020/2/26 3 1.43 47.62%
2020/2/25 0 1.43 45.45%
2020/2/24 3 1.86 68.42%
2020/2/23 0 1.43 62.50%
2020/2/22 1 2.14 93.75%
2020/2/21 3 3.14 200.00%
2020/2/20 0 3.00 700.00%
2020/2/19 3 3.14 2200.00%
2020/2/18 3 2.71 #DIV/0!
2020/2/17 0 2.29 #DIV/0!
2020/2/16 5 2.29 #DIV/0!
2020/2/15 8 1.57 #DIV/0!
2020/2/14 2 0.43 #DIV/0!
2020/2/13 1 0.14 #DIV/0!
2020/2/12 0 0.00 #DIV/0!
2020/2/11 0 0.00 0.00%
2020/2/10 0 0.00 0.00%
2020/2/9 0 0.00 0.00%
2020/2/8 0 0.00 0.00%
2020/2/7 0 0.00 0.00%
2020/2/6 0 0.00 0.00%
2020/2/5 0 0.14 33.33%
2020/2/4 0 0.14 50.00%
2020/2/3 0 0.14 50.00%
2020/2/2 0 0.14 50.00%
2020/2/1 0 0.14 50.00%
2020/1/31 0 0.29 100.00%
2020/1/30 1 0.43 300.00%
2020/1/29 0 0.29
2020/1/28 0 0.29
2020/1/27 0 0.29
2020/1/26 0 0.29
2020/1/25 1 0.29
2020/1/24 1 0.14
2020/1/23 0 0.00
2020/1/22 0 0.00
2020/1/21 0 0.00
2020/1/20 0
2020/1/19 0
2020/1/18 0
2020/1/17 0
2020/1/16 0

緊急事態宣言解除が一つのポイント

3週間後となると、緊急事態宣言が解除されたか延長されたかという時期になりますが、もし解除されていて人の流れが増えた場合、すぐに感染者数が増加に転じ、第5波が始まってしまいますので、解除していても感染対策を心がける必要があると思われます。

第5波が起きるかどうか

もしこのまま感染者数が減っていけば、大阪も東京も7月には緊急事態宣言前の水準に戻っていくことになります。しかし感染力の強い変異株が次々と確認されており、今後日本国内に蔓延する可能性もないとは言えません。

今回の第4波の山は出現してから落ち着くまで3カ月以上かかっています。ワクチン接種が進むことを考えても、さらに強力な変異株が蔓延した場合は、収束までの時間が3カ月単位で必要となってきます。

前回書いたワクチン接種の進展と合わせて考えれば、第4波の収束後に新たな感染拡大が起きなければ、最短で9月下旬ぐらいには、ある程度落ち着いた状態になる可能性がありますが、もしも第5波が発生した場合は、少なくとも3カ月は延びる可能性があります。

そう考えると、東京五輪は、参加者にとっても日本国民にとっても極めてリスクの高い大会になると予想されます。このまま開催される可能性が高そうですが、もし10月に延期されていたら、私たちも選手ももっと安心できる大会になっていたのではないでしょうか。

【PR】Flowflex 新型コロナウィルス抗原検査キット2in1

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